A 30-year reconstruction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows no decline

Abstract. A decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength has been observed between 2004 and 2012 by the RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS (RAPID – Meridional Overturning Circulation Heatflux Array Western Boundary Time Series, hereafter RAPID array) with this weakened state of AMOC persisting until 2017. Climate model paleo-oceanographic research suggests that may have declining for decades or even centuries before this; however direct observations are sparse prior to 2004, giving only “snapshots” circulation. Previous studies used linear models based on upper-layer temperature anomalies extend estimates back time; these ignore changes deep beginning emerge decline. Here we develop a higher-fidelity empirical variability data associated physically thickness persistent upper, intermediate, water masses at 26∘ N transports. We applied historical hydrographic create an time series extending from 1981 2016. Increasing resolution approximately annual shows multi-annual agreement downturn 2008 was weakest since mid-1980s. However, no overall as indicated other proxies high-resolution climate models. Our results reinforce adequately capturing is key detecting any anthropogenic climate-change-related